The Penn-Wharton model found in a preliminary analysis that AI could reduce deficits by $400 billion by 2035. But the Congressional Budget Office framed AI and associated investment as wild cards in determining the U.S. fiscal and economic outlook. While the CBO projects AI will enhance total productivity by 1% in the next decade, its most recent budget report conceded that this prediction was “highly uncertain.” If adoption is slow or costs higher than anticipated, it would significantly alter GDP growth and, consequently, government revenue.
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As for revenue, OpenAI has forecast a massive loss of $14 billion in 2026. It lost around $5 billion in 2024 and reports estimate a loss of $8 billion in 2025. Despite this trajectory, the company claims it'll be raking in $100 billion in revenue by 2029.